Lower expectations: The Central Bank forecast GDP growth below 5% and higher-than-expected inflation.

As it does every month, the Central Bank published the Market Expectations Survey (REM), a report that compiles the forecasts of various economic analysts on the direction of the Argentine economy. Despite optimistic forecasts at the beginning of the year, market analysts predicted lower GDP growth in 2025, including a decline in the current quarter and an upward correction in inflation rates for the remainder of the year.

According to the REM published in September, seasonally adjusted GDP is expected to grow 0.1 % in the second quarter, but fall 0.3 % in the third. In both cases, the estimate represents a decrease of 0.7 percentage points compared to the August REM. Finally, the fourth quarter is expected to end with a 0.6 % increase, remaining the same as the previous survey. Overall, Argentina's GDP is expected to grow 4.4 % in real terms, which would represent a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous estimate.

Another section focused on inflation expectations, which were revised upward. According to the experts surveyed, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August closed at 2.1 %, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous estimate; while the core CPI rose 0.2 percentage points, reaching 2%. Inflation over the coming months is expected to remain in the range of 1.6 % to 1.8 %, falling to 1.5% only in February 2026.

Regarding the annual estimate, 2025 is expected to close with inflation at 28.2%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous month's estimate. However, analysts believe that disinflation will continue over the next two years, reaching 17.7% in 2026 and 10.7% in 2027.

Another revised variant is the dollar. The nominal exchange rate outlook for September places the US currency at $1.362, but its value is expected to rise to $1.441 in December, below the current ceiling of the exchange rate band.

We are publishing the August 2025 Market Expectations Survey, with the main macroeconomic forecasts for the evolution of selected variables. More information: https://t.co/x2ENH8t2BL #REMBCRA pic.twitter.com/9htCQ62YBH

— BCRA (@BancoCentral_AR) September 4, 2025