MORNING BRIEFING - Germany/Europe

DJ MORNING BRIEFING - Germany/Europe

The morning market overview, compiled by Dow Jones Newswires:

HOLIDAY NOTICE

MONDAY: In Japan, stock exchanges will remain closed due to the "Respect the Elderly Day" holiday.

TOPIC OF THE DAY

The head of the French automotive supplier Valeo, Christophe Périllat, has announced that he will push for the exclusion of Chinese-made cars from the European market at the EU auto summit on Friday. "The products sold in Europe must also be manufactured in Europe," Périllat said in an interview with Welt the day before the automotive industry's strategic dialogue with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels. The EU must create a "level playing field" by introducing a "minimum requirement for the European share" of vehicles sold in Europe. "In this way, we will prevent the industrial base from disappearing from Europe," he said. The new regulation should be modeled on the USA, where electric cars from China are generally not permitted.

COMPANY OUTLOOK

There are no important appointments coming up.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

 - EN
08:00 Consumer prices (final) August
 FORECAST: +0.1% yoy/+2.2% yoy
preliminary: +0.1% y/+2.2% y/y
previously: +0.3% y/+2.0% y/y
HICP
 FORECAST: +0.1% yoy/+2.1% yoy
preliminary: +0.1% y/+2.1% y/y
previously: +0.4% y/+1.8% y/y
- GB
08:00 GDP July
 FORECAST: +0.0% yoy/+1.5% yoy
previously: +0.4% y/+1.4% y/y
Three-month installment
FORECAST: +0.2% y-o-y
previously: +0.3% qoq/+1.1% y/y

08:00 Industrial Production July
 FORECAST: +0.0% yoy/+1.0% yoy
previously: +0.7% y/+0.2% y/y
- US
16:00 Consumer Sentiment Index University of Michigan (1st Survey) September
FORECAST: 58.1
previously: 58.2

OVERVIEW FUTURES / INDICES

 Current:
Index last +/- %
DAX Futures 23,749.00 -0.1%
E-Mini Future S&P-500 6,588.00 0.0%
E-Mini Future Nasdaq-100 24,004.90 +0.1%
Nikkei-225 (Tokyo) 44,796.07 +1.0%
Hang-Seng (Hongk.) 26,484.65 +1.5%
Shanghai-Comp. 3,884.71 +0.2%

Thursday:
INDEX last +/- % absolute
DAX 23,703.65 +0.3% 70.70
DAX future 23,767.00 +0.5% 125.00
XDAX 23,755.57 +0.2% 159.20
MDAX 30,146.41 -0.0% -2.47
TecDAX 3,567.30 -0.9% -33.05
SDAX 16,536.09 +0.0% 0.59
Euro Stoxx 50 5,386.77 +0.5% 25.30
Stoxx 50 4,577.67 +0.5% 21.71
Dow Jones 46,108.00 +1.4% 617.08
S&P 500 6,587.47 +0.8% 55.43
Nasdaq Comp. 22,043.08 +0.7% 157.02

FINANCIAL MARKETS

EUROPE

Outlook: Stock markets are expected to remain largely unchanged for the time being. While US indices are celebrating further record highs, buying impulses are lacking in Germany. Unlike the US Fed, support from the ECB is not expected at the moment. The day before, it not only confirmed its key interest rates but also communicated that it considers this level to be appropriate for an extended period. In the US, however, the Fed is likely to cut key interest rates next week – the market is expecting up to three interest rate cuts before the end of this year. This has already left its mark on the bond market. The interest rate spread between the US and Europe has recently narrowed. This is likely to weaken the dollar, and thus not make life any easier for the euro for the German economy.

Review: Slightly firmer - After a subdued start to trading, the stock markets edged up slightly. Investors, looking toward France, were somewhat more risk-averse following recent developments, with the CAC 40 gaining 0.8 percent. Neither the ECB nor US consumer prices for August delivered any major surprises; at most, initial weekly jobless claims were significantly higher than expected. Inflationary pressures in the US rose slightly, but according to economists at Commerzbank, the US Federal Reserve will nevertheless cut interest rates next week. As expected, the ECB left its key interest rates unchanged. Martin Moryson, Chief Economist at DWS, also viewed the projection adjustments as more of a technical matter. Adecco rose 0.3 percent after Jefferies upgraded the shares from "underperform" to "hold."

DAX/MDAX/SDAX/TECDAX

Somewhat firmer - According to Jefferies, recent statements by Chancellor Merz indicated that a possible slowdown in the expansion of renewable energies is imminent. Against this backdrop, Siemens Energy fell 1.1 percent and Nordex 5.9 percent. Press reports about an agreement between the EU and Adnoc on the planned takeover pushed Covestro's share price up 7.9 percent. The stock had plummeted last week following problems there. Heidelberg Materials gained 2.5 percent, and for JP Morgan, the stock remained the first choice in the sector. Aurubis, meanwhile, fell 0.7 percent – ​​burdened by a downgrade by Baader Helvea.

XETRA AFTER-MARKET

Rheinmetall was valued at Lang & Schwarz with a gain of 0.4 percent. The stock had already exited Xetra trading with a 2.3 percent premium, following other European defense stocks – boosted by the Russian drone attack on Poland.

USA - STOCKS

Fester - Wall Street surged sharply, fueled by the prospect of an interest rate cut next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite each reached new record highs. Recent inflation and especially labor market data reinforced expectations of an interest rate cut. Warner Bros. Discovery jumped 29 percent thanks to takeover speculation. Paramount Skydance is apparently preparing a cash offer. Adobe rose 0.2 percent ahead of the earnings release, which was due after the market closed. Oracle fell 6.3 percent following the previous day's jump.

USA - BONDS

Yields fell following the inflation data. The yield on ten-year notes fell 1 basis point to 4.022 percent. The Treasury Department's monthly report showed that the U.S. government is still spending far more than it takes in. According to reports, spending has exceeded revenue by $1.973 trillion since the beginning of the fiscal year in October. This development could increase pressure from U.S. President Trump for interest rate cuts.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

 FOREIGN CURRENCY last +/- % 0:00 Previous day Wed, 17:09 % YTD
EUR/USD 1.1727 -0.1% 1.1735 1.1728 +12.9%
EUR/JPY 172.99 +0.2% 172.73 172.89 +5.9%
EUR/CHF 0.9343 -0.0% 0.9344 0.9346 -0.4%
EUR/GBP 0.8651 +0.1% 0.8645 0.8655 +4.5%
USD/JPY 147.50 +0.2% 147.19 147.42 -6.3%
GBP/USD 1.3556 -0.1% 1.3575 1.3550 +8.1%
USD/CNY 7.0957 +0.1% 7.0900 7.0927 -1.6%
USD/CNH 7.1179 +0.0% 7.1149 7.1166 -2.9%
AUS/USD 0.6659 -0.0% 0.6659 0.6630 +6.8%
Bitcoin/USD 115,427.15 +0.8% 114,528.25 114,119.50 +20.3%

The dollar weakened with the inflation data. Market participants pointed out that a quarter-percentage-point interest rate cut next week was firmly priced in. Lower interest rates make the dollar less attractive. The euro, on the other hand, jumped significantly back above the $1.17 mark. It had briefly slipped below this mark following the ECB's interest rate decision, which confirmed the deposit rate as expected.

The US dollar is recovering from its losses the previous day, with the dollar index climbing 0.1 percent. However, the euro remains well above the $1.17 mark. According to analyst Vishnu Varathan of Mizuho Securities, the greenback is likely to continue to decline, as the Fed is in a comfortable position to resume interest rate cuts, as the worst fears regarding inflation have not materialized.

RAW MATERIALS

OIL

 Crude oil last VT settlement. +/- % +/- USD % YTD
WTI/Nymex 61.78 62.37 -0.9% -0.59 -11.4%
Brent/ICE 65.87 66.37 -0.8% -0.50 -9.7%

After the recent upward phase, oil prices fell – WTI by 2.2 percent and Brent by 1.8 percent. Concerns about slowing demand in the US weighed on the price, while the latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) also added pressure. According to the IEA, the global oil market is heading toward a significantly higher oversupply, which is also due to the increased production volumes from the OPEC+ oil alliance.

METALS

 METALS last day +/- % +/- USD % YTD
Gold 3,655.29 3,634.10 +0.6% 21.19 +38.7%
Silver 42.09 41.58 +1.2% 0.51 +42.6%
Platinum 1,193.55 1,178.15 +1.3% 15.40 +35.7%
Copper 4.68 4.66 +0.4% 0.02 +13.8%
YTD based on the previous day's closing price
(Information provided without guarantee)

The price of gold was volatile after its recent record run. The price per troy ounce fell by 0.2 percent to $3,635. On the one hand, profits were taken, while on the other, the interest rate cut speculation weakened the dollar, providing a tailwind. In addition, there is growing demand for gold from central banks around the world as a means of diversifying away from the dollar, according to traders.

REPORTS SINCE 5.30 PM THE PREVIOUS DAY

US TRADE POLICY

According to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the US wants to conclude a trade agreement with India, even though the United States has already imposed high tariffs and punitive duties on the purchase of Russian oil. "We will deal with India. They have to open their market and stop buying Russian oil," Lutnick said. He pointed out that before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, India imported only 1 percent of its oil from Russia – now it imports 40 percent. The US has imposed some of the highest tariffs on India – 50 percent, including the 25 percent punitive tariff on its purchases of Russian oil.

DAIMLER BUSES

The bus manufacturer's production capacity in Europe is insufficient, which is why the company has now sought and found a contract manufacturer. The Turkish commercial vehicle specialist Otokar will produce the Mercedes-Benz Conecto city bus starting in September 2026. (FAZ)

ZF

The financially troubled automotive supplier is currently in talks about restructuring its driveline division, Division E. The board is now also considering partnerships for individual products: ZF is also talking with employees about partial partnerships for electric motors and inverters, said Mathias Miedreich, the responsible board member, to Wirtschaftswoche.

ADOBE

The software manufacturer earned more than expected in the third quarter of its 2024/25 fiscal year thanks to AI demand and again raised its full-year outlook. Adjusted earnings amounted to $5.31 (previous year: $4.65) per share on revenue of $5.99 billion ($5.41 billion). Analysts had estimated earnings of $5.18 per share on revenue of $5.92 billion. Net income was $1.77 billion ($1.68 billion).

MICROSOFT / OPENAI

The two companies have agreed to extend their partnership. This appears to have eased the recently strained relationship between the software giant and the AI ​​startup. This could ease OpenAI's path to becoming a for-profit company.

Contact the author: [email protected]

DJG/ros/cbr/flf

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 12, 2025 01:30 ET (05:30 GMT)

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