Experts say there is no threat of widespread power outages in our country. But it is not that simple.

Shortly after a widespread power outage paralyzed almost the entire Iberian Peninsula, experts rejected such a scenario for Central Europe.

The President of the Federal Network Agency, Klaus Müller, considered a blackout in Germany "very unlikely." He added that if one power line fails, another could step in. Furthermore, there are enough power plants that could start up in an emergency without external power supplies. Germany, he said, is prepared. There's no reason to panic.

The situation in Switzerland was similar. A power outage was possible, they said, but it would hardly affect the entire country.

But is that really true? Is there really nothing to worry about?

Experts interviewed by the NZZ see things differently. They see risks, particularly for Germany, that could also indirectly affect Switzerland.

First, there's the energy transition, which has massively increased the vulnerability of the power grid to fluctuations in many countries. It's important to understand that one thing is particularly important in energy supply: balance. Electricity generation must always match consumption. When citizens turn on their air conditioning at midday, technicians at the control center connect power plants. At bedtime, when electricity consumption drops, they take power from the grid.

If this balance is lost, power plants will shut themselves down in an emergency to avoid damage. This can lead to a dreaded "cascade" and ultimately a blackout. Christian Dörr of the Hasso Plattner Institute compares it to cycling up a hill. You have to pedal hard to get up the hill. Otherwise, you'll eventually fall off your bike.

In the days of a conventional energy system, keeping the power grid balanced was no problem. Large power plants were built near cities and industrial centers and power cables were laid there. When consumption dropped, coal-fired power plants were reduced or power plants were shut down. But with renewables, the equation changes. Fluctuations increase because the ability of wind turbines or solar roofs to generate electricity depends on the weather.

Now, experts believe, homegrown political problems are adding to the mix. Herbert Saurugg, president of the Society for Crisis Preparedness, tells the NZZ: "The entire energy transition hasn't been thought through to its full potential." First, many countries eagerly expanded renewables. But then they failed to expand storage and grids.

In Germany, in particular, there's something else going on: politicians are aggressively shutting down conventional power plants, first nuclear power plants, now coal-fired power plants; 15 went offline in 2024 alone. Saurugg puts it this way: "They're blowing up power plants before they even have a solution." The result is an electricity grid that would barely function without neighboring countries. This creates new vulnerabilities.

In winter, these neighbors must supply Germany with electricity when renewable energy production collapses on windless, dark days. Due to such a "dark lull," electricity prices on the spot market briefly soared to astronomical heights in December 2024, even in some neighboring countries , particularly Sweden and Norway. Because these countries supplied Germany with electricity, it became scarce for domestic consumers.

Another major problem these days is the "light breeze." These are days when the wind blows so strongly and the sun shines for so long that too much electricity is fed into the grid. Germany is increasingly forced to pay neighboring countries to take it.

To put it bluntly: Germany uses its neighboring countries as storage facilities in the winter and as consumers in the summer. According to Saurugg, all of this increases the vulnerability of the power grid. In the worst case, light breezes and periods of darkness can lead to so-called brownouts. In these cases, some consumers are disconnected from the power grid for a few hours to prevent further damage.

The problems can also be seen in redispatch. This refers to interventions to avoid overloads. Sometimes wind turbines in the north have to be shut down because the electricity cannot be transported to the south; sometimes gas-fired power plants in the south have to be ramped up to compensate for shortages. Usually both occur simultaneously. These interventions have increased significantly over the past ten years.

Similar problems exist in other European countries. According to an analysis by Rystad Energy on Tuesday, Spain is now experiencing enormous difficulties in balancing fluctuations due to its high production of renewable energy and the lack of grid expansion. The experts believe that the planned nuclear phase-out will exacerbate the problem. In Portugal, the "complete dependence on imports has once again underscored the lack of flexibility and storage options," the analysis states. An analysis by Ember Energy is even more dramatic. It concludes that in 11 of 25 European countries, electricity grid expansion plans do not align with targets for the expansion of wind and solar power.

If all these countries, like Germany, want to shut down conventional power plants at an ever-increasing rate, there's a problem. Because then they, too, would have to increasingly export electricity during periods of surplus and import it during periods of shortage. Saurugg believes such a scenario is a recipe for disaster. "If I continually increase interconnectivity without creating appropriate safeguards, then systems science clearly shows what will happen: In the long term, this will lead to collapse," he says.

This could also affect Switzerland. If widespread outages were to occur in Germany and its neighboring countries, the Swiss could also suffer from fluctuations. They would then have to compensate for these. But thanks to its mountains, Switzerland is better prepared for such shocks. Its pumped-storage power plants can counteract such cases.

But it's not just the unilateral expansion of renewables that poses a threat; cyberattacks also pose a threat. Eurelectric, the European umbrella organization for the electricity industry, warned in February that the European energy infrastructure is increasingly at risk from cyberattacks.

A 2022 study commissioned by Danish energy companies found that the number of such attacks doubled between 2020 and 2022 alone. The first attack on a European energy company was carried out in Ukraine in 2015. Since then, "there have been successful cyberattacks on a European energy or utility company every year."

Among other things, the hackers disabled the remote control of wind farms and disabled prepaid meters. Such an attack can also cause power outages. The danger increases as interconnectedness increases.

Christian Dörr of the Hasso Plattner Institute cites an example from Germany: The Solar Peak Power Act allows distribution grid operators to access solar panels in households and, if necessary, disconnect them from the grid. While this makes sense to prevent overloads, it also opens the door to cyberattacks. All it takes is a single hacker to penetrate the grid operator's systems, and they can cause enormous fluctuations. In addition, much data is stored on Chinese servers. This is something that is discussed far too little, says Dörr.

With the energy transition, vulnerability to cyberattacks also increases. Power comes from all directions; electricity no longer flows in a one-way fashion from individual power plants along transmission lines to consumers, but from everywhere throughout the entire country. It comes from tens of thousands of solar panels on roofs, from wind turbines on land or at sea.

This presents new challenges for grid operators and energy companies. They are increasingly coordinating power flows using digital technologies and control systems, artificial intelligence, and real-time data analytics. This ensures grid stability. However, as a result of this development, the size of the attack surface—the "potential access points for hostile actors"—is also increasing, says Eurelectric.

The attack surface for cybercriminals is now vast, whether via smart meters, sensors, or automated control systems. Added to this are electric vehicles, heat pumps, and solar systems that are connected to the grid. These devices make the system even more complex and potentially more vulnerable to attack.

Energy companies have been warning of increasing risks for years, and now they are preparing to face them. For example, the Swiss electricity company Axpo opened a new control center in December with the goal of fending off attacks on the power supply and other critical services.

Experts there now keep an eye out for attacks on machines, power grids, or transportation infrastructure. They intervene if necessary.

So what can be done to avoid power outages in the future? Crisis expert Saurugg calls for a more realistic energy transition that includes all technologies, including nuclear power. In his view, the system should stop at 70 percent renewables. The remainder could be covered, for example, with new small reactors, so-called small modular reactors, or with fossil-fuel power plants whose greenhouse gases are compressed underground.

Such power plants reduced the costs of grid expansion and storage. The value of baseload power plants was also demonstrated by the current power outage on the Iberian Peninsula. French nuclear power plants played a crucial role in restarting the Spanish energy system.

Above all, Saurugg advocates decentralizing the power grid. Small units with a diameter of up to 60 kilometers should be created that can supply themselves independently. This would increase resilience.

A lot of work also needs to be done in cybersecurity. According to the International Energy Agency, the main focus now is on developing the necessary defensive capabilities, training experts within the affected companies, investing in security precautions, and strengthening information sharing with other companies. Otherwise, attacks may not be as easy to defend against in the future. The consequences, as everyone now sees, can be dramatic.