Commerzbank on the rise: When will UniCredit strike?
Yesterday, Commerzbank shares rose sharply. By breaking the 20 euro mark, the share price has reached its highest level since 2011. The background to this is the election result. Now it counts for the board, because UniCredit could soon take action.
On election night, it looked as if Germany would once again be governed by a coalition of three parties. This had caused political uncertainty under the traffic light coalition for some time, and the economy would stagnate for several years at best. But since yesterday morning it has been clear that a two-party coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD is sufficient.
The likelihood that there will be a clear situation with the next government has therefore increased. This was also reflected in yesterday's price trend for Commerzbank shares. For the first time since 2011, the 20 euro mark was reached again on a closing price basis. This means that the price range has slowly been reached at which things will become expensive for UniCredit, which is most likely seeking a takeover.
According to analysts, the Milan-based institute can handle a takeover up to a price of 20.00 to 22.00 euros. From then on, however, it may be difficult to achieve the profitability targets that CEO Andrea Orcel is aiming for. The owner control procedure could turn out positively for UniCredit as early as next month, which would clear the way for it to increase its stake in Commerzbank to 29.9 percent.
Once the threshold of 30.0 percent is reached, UniCredit is obliged to make a public offer to all other shareholders. However, the new federal government will most likely not have been formed in March. Orcel wanted to enter into a dialogue with the new administration, as he himself said in several interviews. He therefore sees the decisive moment as coming next autumn or winter.
However, Orcel has already acted differently than he had previously publicly announced, particularly with regard to Commerzbank. The new government, which will presumably consist of the CDU/CSU and the SPD, is unlikely to be any less opposed to a takeover of Commerzbank by UniCredit than the old one.
The volume of Commerzbank shares traded yesterday was almost seven million, significantly above the average of the last 30 days of 5.77 million shares. This supports the breakout above the 20 euro mark. With the new strategy behind it and the takeover fantasy, further gains are conceivable. The share remains a buy.
reference to conflicts of interest
The board member and majority owner of the publisher Börsenmedien AG, Mr. Bernd Förtsch, has directly and indirectly taken positions in the following financial instruments mentioned in the publication or derivatives related to them, which can benefit from any price development resulting from the publication: Commerzbank.
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