750 billion dollars for oil and gas from the USA: The EU promises Trump something it can hardly keep

It was a Sunday just as Donald Trump imagined it: First, the US President played a round of golf with his son Eric. Then he sat down in front of the camera with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and announced that the US and the EU had reached a deal in the trade dispute. In the future, most European goods imported into the US will be subject to a 15 percent tariff.

The EU has bought this deal. It made far-reaching promises to the US President regarding energy resources. A Commission representative said on Monday morning that these were sound calculations. They are confident that they will be achieved.

But a look at the data makes it clear: The EU is promising Trump a lot—perhaps even more than it can deliver. These are the most important questions and answers about the tariff deal with the US.

According to statements by the US President and his Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, the EU has promised that European companies will invest $600 billion in the US. It will also purchase $750 billion worth of American energy goods, likely primarily oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and nuclear fuel.

Von der Leyen clarified that the sum refers to three annual payments of $250 billion each – i.e. for the remaining period of Trump's term in office.

This is likely a loose declaration of intent. But the EU has now set a concrete target for the US President. It would look bad if it couldn't even come close to achieving it.

Very large. By comparison, in 2024, the EU imported energy goods worth a total of $410 billion—from all over the world, not just the US.

It's important to note that the value of commodity deliveries fluctuates significantly. How much oil and gas Europeans could actually buy with the promised amount depends heavily on the respective price. In the current environment, the deal means that more than half of all energy imports would have to come from the US for the EU to fulfill its promise.

In 2024, the EU imported $70 billion worth of American oil and gas. Von der Leyen is promising $250 billion in purchases, more than tripling the current delivery volume. Many energy experts are puzzled as to how this will happen as quickly as promised while prices remain stable.

Private traders and energy companies. The EU Commission itself does not conclude purchase agreements and cannot dictate to companies which countries they must source from. It merely sets the framework for the private sector.

Most likely, secure access to liquefied natural gas (LNG) is needed. European demand for this has increased significantly since 2022 because Europeans had to compensate for the loss of Russian pipeline gas supplies following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Furthermore, burning gas is seen as a temporary solution for the energy transition. In the long term, renewable energies are expected to provide enough electricity so that Europe no longer needs fossil fuels. However, the EU will still be dependent on supplies in the coming years.

The United States is already the most important supplier of liquefied natural gas to EU countries. Almost half of all LNG imports came from the United States.

However, the LNG market alone is too small to fulfill the purchase promises of the deal: last year, Europe's total LNG imports were worth $45 billion.

Quite possible. But three times 250 billion dollars is far more than the Europeans need – assuming American producers are even able to meet demand so quickly. It usually takes years for new gas reserves to be developed and the infrastructure for shipping them to be ready.

In addition, many European politicians have recently sought to minimize dependence on individual energy suppliers. The continent's painful experience with Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent cessation of Russian gas supplies was too painful.